Leticia Claro Oliveira

Leticia
Claro Oliveira

PhD Candidate - Political Science
Washington University in St. Louis
m.l.oliveira@wustl.edu

Welcome! I am a Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science at Washington University in St. Louis, and a Dean's Distinguished Graduate Fellow. I study comparative politics, with a regional focus on Latin America. My research investigates how political institutions shape access to power and how contextual conditions, particularly criminal violence, limit what formal rules and public policy can achieve.

Before joining WashU, I earned a B.A. in Social Sciences and an M.A. in Political Science from the University of São Paulo in Brazil.

My previous work may be cited under my full name, Maria Leticia Claro de Faria Oliveira, or some variations. While I proudly carry all my family names, my recent academic publications appear under the shortened version, Leticia Claro Oliveira.

Research

Dissertation

Who Governs? Institutions, Parties, and Access to Power — My dissertation examines how electoral institutions shape who gains access to political power, both within parties and across governing coalitions, and the consequences of these arrangements for service delivery.

Working Paper

Winning to Lose: How Electoral Rules Shape Cabinet Appointments and Public Service Delivery in Presidential Systems

Working Paper

Keeping It in the Family: Kinship Networks as a Quota Compliance Strategy in Brazil

Working Paper

Criminal Violence and the Representation of Women in Politics

Other Projects

Book Project

When Mobility Becomes Security: Criminal Governance and Civilian Migration in Rio de Janeiro

Organized criminal groups have become enduring political, economic, and social actors, shaping civilians' everyday lives through coercion, extraction, and rule enforcement. Yet questions such as when and why civilians leave these territories or whether non-coercive state interventions can weaken criminal governance remain largely unanswered. This project develops a theory of civilian exit under criminal rule.

Research Project

Global Armed Violence and Health

This research project investigates the relationships between firearm violence, national and global health within the scope of the Commission on Global Armed Violence and Health. In Brazil, the study analyzes the evolution of firearm registration and the profile of registrants, morbidity and mortality indicators directly or indirectly related to firearm ownership and use, the legal and regulatory framework, and the legal and illegal markets for firearm production and trade. The research is multidisciplinary, incorporating perspectives from political science, law, sociology, and public health.

with Lorena Barberia (USP) · Natalia Pires de Vasconcelos (UGA) · Luiz Roth Cantarelli (USP) · Mateus Tobias Vieira (UNESP) · Bruno Langeani (Instituto Sou da Paz)

Working Paper · Awarded ASU - BRIDGS Emergent Scholar Fellow (Spring 2026)

The Politics of Missing Data: How Democratization Transitions Explain Gun Data Transparency in Latin America

with Lorena Barberia (USP) · Natalia Pires de Vasconcelos (UGA) · Luiz Roth Cantarelli (USP) · Mateus Tobias Vieira (UNESP) · Bruno Langeani (Instituto Sou da Paz)

Publications

The Relationship between Ideology and COVID-19 Deaths: What We Know and What We Still Need to Know

Several recent studies have investigated if support for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election of 2018 is positively associated with COVID-19 infections and deaths in Brazil. This article discusses why ecological research designs are difficult to test empirically, focusing on measurement error, aggregation bias, and spatial and temporal dynamics.

with Lorena Barberia (USP) · Natália de Paula Moreira (USP) · Rebeca de Jesus Carvalho (USP) · Isabel Seelaender Costa Rosa (USP) · Marcela Zamudio (USP)

Brazilian Political Science Review (2022)

The Effect of State-Level Social Distancing Policy Stringency on Mobility in the States of Brazil

In Brazil, sub-national governments played a key role implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker methodology, we coded stringency levels of state-level policies from early February to mid-May 2020. We find that anti-contagion policies had a significant effect on adherence to remaining at home, and that social distancing policies had greater impact when a more complete and coherent set of policies were introduced and sustained by state governments.

with Lorena G. Barberia (USP) · Luiz G. R. Cantarelli (USP) · Natália de Paula Moreira (USP) · Isabel Seelaender Costa Rosa (USP)

Revista de Administração Pública (2021)

Should I Stay or Should I Go? Embracing Causal Heterogeneity in the Study of Pandemic Policy and Citizen Behavior

We perform Granger-causality tests to explore the interrelationship between social distancing policy, home isolation, balance rate, and average weekly COVID-19 deaths in the 26 states of Brazil. Our analysis demonstrates significant heterogeneity across the Brazilian federation, underscoring that there is no common model applicable to all states and that the dynamics are context-dependent.

with Lorena G. Barberia (USP) · Andrea Junqueira (TAMU) · Natália de Paula Moreira (USP) · Guy D. Whitten (TAMU)

Social Science Quarterly (2021)

Foreign Policy and the Legislature in President Lugo's Paraguay

(Política Externa e Legislativo no Paraguai do Presidente Lugo)

The article assesses the association between political and institutional factors and the capacity of President Lugo to approve his legislative initiatives, disaggregating by themes of domestic politics and foreign policy. Through a logistic model, we find a president strongly constrained by the legislature in domestic affairs but with sufficient conditions to approve the foreign policy agenda.

with Pedro Feliu Ribeiro

Revista de Sociologia e Política (2018)

The Executive and Legislative Relations in Paraguay under Fernando Lugo (2008–2012)

(As Relações Executivo e Legislativo no Paraguai de Fernando Lugo (2008-2012))

This paper analyzes the legislative process in the National Congress of Paraguay during Lugo's administration. Results show that strategic state areas such as foreign policy, finances, and administration received massive congressional support, while the president's inability to legislate in sensitive electoral themes stressed the troubled relationship between president and congress.

with Pedro Feliu Ribeiro (USP)

Revista Paraguay desde las Ciencias Sociales (2017)

Teaching

Spring 2026 Seminar in Comparative Politics: Political Behavior Graduate POLSCI 5190-02 · Teaching Assistant · Washington University in St. Louis
Fall 2025 Topics in Politics: Authoritarian Politics Undergraduate POLSCI 3103-01 · Teaching Assistant · Washington University in St. Louis
Summer 2025 Python Camp Graduate Teaching Assistant · Washington University in St. Louis
Spring 2025 Comparative Politics Workshop Graduate POLSCI 5074 · Teaching Assistant · Washington University in St. Louis
Spring 2025 Introduction to Comparative Politics Undergraduate POLSCI 102B · Teaching Assistant · Washington University in St. Louis
Fall 2024 Approaches to Comparative Politics Graduate POLSCI 510 · Teaching Assistant · Washington University in St. Louis
Spring 2024 Introduction to Political Theory Undergraduate POLSCI 106 · Teaching Assistant · Washington University in St. Louis
Fall 2023 Topics in Politics: Latin American Politics Undergraduate POLSCI 326B · Teaching Assistant · Washington University in St. Louis
Fall 2019 Quantitative Methods in Research in Political Science IV Graduate FLP0468 · Teaching Assistant · University of São Paulo

Curriculum Vitae

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